Can We Reduce the World’s Crime Rate, Panda-san? — Part 1
ep.338 Can We Reduce the World’s Crime Rate, Panda-san? — Part 1
Publication date: October 18, 2025, 23:36
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“They say Japan’s homicides have apparently decreased considerably compared to before the year 2000. Theft and fraud may have increased, though? How is it in the world—for example, the U.S., the U.K., and France. People say ‘it’s because of immigrants,’ but that might be fake news, right? I want to know truly reliable data.”
Japan’s Crime Trends (1990–2024) and International Comparison
Using reliable data sources such as UNODC (United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime), the World Bank, Macrotrends, Statista, the FBI, the ONS (U.K. Office for National Statistics), the Brennan Center, Pew Research, and other official statistics and studies. These carry relatively little bias and show long-term trends. “Homicide” refers to intentional killing, and rates are per 100,000 population. “Theft” covers robbery and theft in general; “fraud” includes financial and cyber-related offenses. Overall, homicide is on a downward trend in many countries, but theft/fraud are increasing due to cyberization. As for links between immigration and crime, many studies conclude “no causal relationship.”
Japan’s situation
•Homicide rate: Around 1990 ≈ 1.0 per 100,000; around 2000 ≈ 0.5; 2023–2024 ≈ 0.23—large decrease. Compared with pre-2000, more than halved and among the lowest in the world.    
•Theft/Fraud: Total recorded crime peaked in 2002 (2.85 million cases) then declined, but rose 4.9% in 2024 (738,000 cases). Theft is flat, while fraud (especially cyber) is on an upward trend; fraud victimization increased year-on-year in 2024. Settled cybercrime cases increased 2015–2024.     
United States
•Homicide rate: 1990: 9.4 per 100,000; 1991 peak 10.7; 2014 low 4.7; 2020 increase 6.42; 2023 decline (−16%). Overall decrease 1990–2024, with a temporary rise during COVID.     
•Theft/Fraud: Theft rate has declined since 1990 (2023: 1,347 per 100,000). Fraud, however, has surged; 2024 losses $12.5B (+25%), chiefly cyber-related such as ID theft.     
United Kingdom
•Homicide rate: ~1.0 per 100,000 in 1990; fluctuates; 2020 ≈ 1.0. Stable/slight decrease 1990–2024. 2024: about 1.0.     
•Theft/Fraud: Overall crime down 90% 1990–2024 (assault, theft, vehicle theft). But in 2024: theft +13% (2.9 million), fraud +33% (4.1 million). Fraud led by investment and romance scams.      
France
•Homicide rate: ~1.5 per 100,000 in 1990; 1.14 in 2021. Slight decrease/stable 1990–2024.     
•Theft/Fraud: Theft roughly flat; fraud rising. Especially cyber fraud—about 75% of fraud is cyber-related. 2024 losses: €3.64 per euro (?) lost ratio; total exceeding €500M.      
Key points in international comparison
•Homicide: Japan shows the steepest drop (maintaining very low levels). The U.S. shows larger swings (influenced by gun regulation). The U.K./France are stable to slightly down. Both higher than Japan but around advanced-country averages.
•Theft/Fraud: Theft tends to decline across countries, but fraud rises with cyberization (common to Japan/U.S./U.K./France). Japan’s overall crime is low, but increased in 2024.
Immigration and crime
Reliable research (Pew, Migration Observatory, IZA World of Labor, etc.) finds no evidence that increases in immigration cause higher crime. In fact, immigrant crime rates are often lower than those of the native-born.
•U.S.: Immigrants have lower crime rates; increases in immigration correlate with crime decreases.    
•U.K.: Immigration increases correlate with decreases in theft, or no relation.    
•France: No effect of immigration on crime.   “Immigrants increase crime” stories are often biased (e.g., political propaganda); data say they’re false. Crime increases stem mainly from economic and pandemic factors.
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“In regions where it hardly decreases, what kinds of homicides are there? For example, serial killings? Terrorism? Robbery? Grudges? Why don’t they decrease? There are security cameras, so it should be easy to get caught. Do they not care at all? Are penalties light even if they’re caught?”
Features of Regions Where the Homicide Rate Hardly Decreases, and Why
Based on your question, here’s a summary of regions where homicide rates have remained stable or have trended upward since 2000. The main regions are Latin America (Mexico, Brazil, Venezuela, Colombia, Ecuador, etc.) and parts of Africa (e.g., South Africa). In these countries, overall homicide rates are high globally—often 20–60+ per 100,000—and lack the sharp declines seen in Europe or Japan.      Below are the main types of homicide and why they don’t decline (including the presence of security cameras and the severity of penalties). Data are based on UNODC, the Igarapé Institute, and other reliable sources.
1.Main types of homicide
In these regions, homicides are driven by structural social factors; certain types dominate overall numbers. Serial killings or terrorism are relatively small shares; everyday criminal violence is the main driver.
•Organized-crime/gang-related homicide: The most prevalent type, accounting for 50–80% of homicides in much of Latin America.   In Mexico and Brazil, turf wars among drug cartels and gangs drive shoot-outs and retributive killings. In South Africa, gang-related crime drives urban homicides. Classic serial killers are rare; repetitive gang killings can resemble a “serial” pattern.
•Robbery-related homicide: Common in poorer areas. In Brazil and South Africa, robberies escalate into homicide, with victims often ordinary citizens who resist. In Venezuela, economic collapse increased robbery, pushing up homicide rates.   
•Grudge/domestic homicide: Personal vendettas and domestic violence. In Mexico and Brazil, these account for 20–30%, often intertwined with gender inequality and alcohol/drug problems.  In South Africa, domestic violence leading to homicide is conspicuous.
•Terrorism-related homicide: A minority, but present in parts of Colombia and Mexico due to anti-government guerrillas and terrorist organizations. The overall share is low and mostly political.
•Serial homicide: Not prominent in these regions and more likely to be reported in advanced countries like the U.S. In Latin America, large-scale gang killings may look “serial,” but individual serial killers are fewer.
These homicides involve firearms in 90%+ of cases, with drug trafficking and poverty as background factors. 
2.Why homicide rates don’t decline
Despite CCTV and advances in technology, rates don’t fall because structural problems can’t be solved by technology alone. The deterrent effect of harsh penalties is also limited; the following factors are intertwined.
•Limits of CCTV: Cameras can reduce crime by about 25% in certain places (residential areas, parking lots), but results are mixed overall.     In high-crime areas, cameras are avoided (dark alleys), destroyed, or evidence is ignored by corrupt police.   In Mexico and Brazil, gangs control favelas where installing cameras is difficult; even when tech exists, cooperation is scarce (fear of reprisals), and clearance rates remain low.   In short, even if it’s “easy to get caught,” offenders act because social/economic drivers (poverty, unemployment) outweigh fear of detection.
•Severity of punishment vs. certainty: Harsh penalties (death penalty, long sentences) have a moderate deterrent effect, but in high-crime countries the certainty of punishment is low, blunting the effect.     For example, even in the U.S., which uses harsh penalties, homicide rates can be high because arrest/conviction rates are low.   In Mexico and Brazil, corruption and judicial delays mean offenders aren’t caught or receive lighter outcomes—leading to the perception “even if caught, it’s fine.” There are cases where homicide declined after death-penalty abolition (e.g., Canada, Australia, South Africa), showing that harshness alone is insufficient.   The core reasons are poverty, inequality, firearm circulation, and gang culture; more than technology or punishment, socio-economic measures (education, employment) are key.  
Overall, in these regions, without solving root causes (economic disparity, corruption), technology and punishment won’t bring reductions. By contrast, Japan and Europe suppress these factors, so sharp declines have occurred.   
If you need additional data, let me know!
