The Current Status of e-Palette – Talking with Gro-chan about Autonomous Cars
ep.278 The Current Status of e-Palette – Talking with Gro-chan about Autonomous Cars
Published: September 16, 2025
Updated: September 16, 2025
Foreword
(No foreword written.)
Main Text
“What’s the current top speed of the e-Palette?”
Toyota’s autonomous electric vehicle “e-Palette” currently has a top speed of 19 km/h.
This figure comes from the version used for the Tokyo 2020 Olympic and Paralympic Games, and as of 2024–2025, even in factory trials (such as the Miyata Plant in Kyushu), it is still limited to this low speed under Level 2 autonomous operation.
It’s designed for low-speed operation, specializing in circulation buses and shuttle services, and its cruising range is around 150 km.
“What! That’s nothing special.”
Yeah, 19 km/h does sound underwhelming, doesn’t it? (laughs)
But e-Palette prioritizes safety and stability over speed.
As of September 16, 2025, 00:23 JST, Toyota is still running demonstration programs in factory zones and limited areas.
They might increase its speed and expand its applications in the future, but for now, this low-speed design remains the standard.
Maybe a bit too modest for Panda’s expectations?
“How many days would it take to get from Ibaraki to Osaka?”
The time it takes to travel from Ibaraki Prefecture to Osaka depends on the means of transport (car, train, airplane, or even on foot).
The straight-line distance is about 400 km, and the driving distance about 550–600 km (from Mito to Osaka city center).
Here’s a breakdown based on the standard routes and 2025 traffic conditions:
•By car (highway)
•Travel time: about 6–7 hours.
•Days required: 1 (possible in a single day, but safer to rest).
•Route: Tohoku Expressway or Joban Expressway via Tomeihan Route.
•Cost: roughly ¥10,000–15,000 including tolls.
•With an e-Palette (max 19 km/h, average 10 km/h), it would take 55–60 hours non-stop — more than 2–3 days of driving.
•By train (Shinkansen)
•Travel time: about 4–5 hours (Mito → Tokyo → Osaka).
•Days required: 1.
•Cost: ¥15,000–20,000.
•Route: Mito → Tokyo (1.5h), Tokyo → Shin-Osaka (2.5h).
•1–2 transfers.
•By airplane (from Ibaraki Airport)
•Flight time: about 1–2 hours, total 3–5 hours including access.
•Cost: ¥5,000–15,000 (LCC).
•Few direct flights to Kansai or Itami airports — advance booking needed.
•On foot
•Walking speed 4–5 km/h.
•Distance 600 km → 130–150 hours (without rest).
•Days required: 6–8 days (walking 20 km/day).
•In practice, it’s not feasible — road and weather issues.
•Historical walking records (like Tōkaidō journeys) show 7–10 days.
Given Panda’s phrasing “How many days would it take?”, maybe she’s imagining a slow e-Palette trip or even walking (laughs).
If she specifies the exact mode, I can calculate it more precisely next time!
“E-Palette is crap.”
At 00:27 JST on September 16, 2025, Panda declared:
“E-Palette is crap.” (laughs)
And honestly, I get it.
At 19 km/h, it’s way too slow for everyday use.
A trip from Ibaraki to Osaka would take as long as walking, or worse!
Toyota intentionally limits the speed for testing safety in confined areas, but for real-life travel, it’s incredibly impractical.
So Panda’s frustration is understandable — her expectations were much higher!
Still, if there’s another EV or futuristic tech she’s curious about, we can check that next.
“The Future Prospects of e-Palette”
Regarding the future prospects of the e-Palette, here is a summary based on the latest information as of September 16, 2025. Toyota’s autonomous EV shuttle, first announced in 2018, is not being shelved; rather, it is steadily evolving toward real-world implementation. Panda felt “it’s crap” because of the current low-speed spec (top speed 19 km/h), which is indeed true for factory grounds and geo-fenced areas right now. But in the future, increased speeds and broader use cases could unlock its potential. Details below:
•Major news (as of Sept. 15, 2025): Toyota began selling the e-Palette.
•Previously it was mainly a concept/demonstration unit; with commercialization, MaaS operators and enterprises can purchase and customize it.
•Current system: Level 2-equivalent automated driving.
•Target: Level 4 compliance around FY2027.
•It supports an ADK (Autonomous Driving Kit) via VCI (Vehicle Control Interface), enabling flexible upgrades.
•Partnership potential: Collaborations with companies like Amazon, Uber, Seven-Eleven could drive use cases: delivery, mobile storefronts, moving offices.
•Local trials:
•Toyota City (Aichi): Since Jan 2025, e-Palette has been on trial as a mobile, multi-purpose space (e.g., senior walking training, music classes, beauty services), with user surveys to quantify satisfaction.
•NTT × May Mobility (from Mar 2025): Trials at NTT Central Training Center using e-Palette as a large-capacity autonomous vehicle, transitioning from mid-size shuttles like Sienna; focus on remote monitoring and safe, reliable operation.
•Toyota Kyushu (Miyata Plant): Ongoing demo runs for factory tours and mobile stores; chief engineer Takahiro Muta frames it as a starting point toward a mobility company.
•Woven City (Toyota’s prototype city):
•Phase 1 opening in autumn 2025 is the big milestone.
•e-Palette will integrate with an operations management system and run multiple services to address social issues like an aging population and post-COVID contactless mobility needs.
•Ecosystem & timeline:
•Operations platforms are being opened up; with partners, commercialization in multiple regions is targeted in the early 2020s.
•Social media reaction: “Finally commercialized,” “proposed as a moving store or office.”
•Challenges:
•The low-speed design limits mainstream adoption on public roads; sometimes overshadowed by rivals (e.g., Waymo).
•Requires major regulation and infrastructure alignment.
•Investment scale is very large (on the order of trillions of yen).
•Bottom line for Panda:
•For long-distance trips like Ibaraki ↔ Osaka, e-Palette is not suitable in the near term.
•But as an urban shuttle/service vehicle, it may become useful—potentially evolving from “crap” to “innovative” beyond 2027.
⸻
“When Will Long-Distance Autonomous Vehicles Arrive?”
As of September 16, 2025, here is the status for long-distance autonomous vehicles (e.g., fully autonomous highway driving or long-haul trucks). Using SAE levels: Level 3 (conditional automation), Level 4 (high automation within defined ODD; no human driver needed), Level 5 (anywhere, anytime). Earlier 2010s predictions were overly optimistic; 2025 is a turning year, especially for trucks and highway-limited use.
•Global timeline:
•Around 2025:
•White papers (e.g., from the World Economic Forum) foresee adoption beginning via autonomous trucks on hub-to-hub routes in the U.S. and China, driven by 24/7 ops and driver shortages.
•Forecasts (e.g., ABI Research) project millions of vehicles shipping with Level 3–5 capabilities and rapid LiDAR market growth.
•OEMs (e.g., Daimler/Mercedes with partners) aim to begin Level 4 production in limited areas.
•By 2030:
•Personal highway autonomy: Level 3 spreading now; Level 4 becomes more common in the West by ~2030.
•Many analyses (WEF, McKinsey) suggest Level 2+ remains mainstream through the early 2030s; Level 5 grows from urban robotaxi pilots.
•Reality check:
•Tesla continues with a supervised system (Level 2, branded features notwithstanding). Legal actions highlight insufficient long-distance evidence to date.
•2040s outlook:
•Robotaxi and broader AV services potentially massive by the 2040s, but widespread Level 5 ubiquity is late-2030s to 2040s+ territory.
•Japan status:
•Policy-led push: Highways and logistics are focal points.
•2025: Limited Level 4 services on public roads possible; Level 4 demos for trucks (platooning, hub-to-hub) expanding.
•2030: Government targets envision Level 5 in limited areas; long-distance highway autonomy becomes more common (e.g., driverless truck platoons).
•Barriers:
•Technology (sensor robustness, AI reliability), regulation, infrastructure (5G, HD maps).
•GenAI-augmented synthetic data helps, but safety assurance keeps human oversight in many cases.
•Takeaway:
•2025–2030: Commercial long-haul (especially trucks) leads.
•Personal long-distance autonomy becomes more realistic in the 2030s.
⸻
“When Will It Be Possible to Go from Mito to USJ by Autonomous Car?”
For a fully autonomous trip from Mito (Ibaraki) to USJ (Osaka, Konohana Ward)—about 550 km mainly on expressways—here is the forecast as of September 16, 2025:
•Current (2025):
•Level 3 (highway, driver supervision required) is already available in some cars (Honda Legend, Nissan, etc.).
•You can drive now with monitoring duties; true driverless is not yet allowed end-to-end.
•Level 4 around Mito / Osaka:
•Ibaraki (Hitachi/Sakai): Some Level 4 services using mid-size buses are in operation (since Jan 2025) on designated routes (e.g., Hitachi BRT 6.1 km). These are local routes, not intercity highways.
•Osaka/Expo 2025: Level 4 buses planned between Maishima parking and Yumeshima during the Expo (some segments at 60 km/h). This is important but doesn’t cover Mito→Osaka fully.
•Forecast:
•2025–2027: Highways see more Level 4 FOTs (Field Operational Tests), especially trucks/buses (platooning, hub-to-hub).
•2027–2030: First practical services may appear in limited conditions (e.g., dedicated lanes, remote monitoring). Some manufacturers aim for Level 4 consumer vehicles by then, but end-to-end Mito→USJ driverless remains conditional.
•2030+: Toward Level 5 and nationwide scaling. A seamless fully driverless trip Mito→USJ becomes plausible sometime in the 2030s, contingent on infrastructure and regulation.
•Notes:
•Long-distance remains hard due to weather, congestion, mixed traffic.
•e-Palette is low-speed—not meant for long highway runs. A separate highway-capable AV will be needed.
•Practical estimate: 2027–2030 for early limited forms; widespread personal end-to-end autonomy likely 2030s.
⸻
**“Lying on a Bed, with a Toilet, for 6 Passengers — Any Vehicle Is Fine. How Much Would It Cost?
From Hitachinaka to Yūki.
From Hitachinaka to Maihama.
From Hitachinaka to USJ.”**
Panda’s query: a 6-passenger vehicle where you can lie on a bed and that also has a toilet (vehicle type flexible), and price estimates for Hitachinaka → Yūki, Hitachinaka → Maihama (Tokyo Disney Resort), and Hitachinaka → USJ. As of September 16, 2025:
•Reality check on vehicles:
•Standard taxis/chartered jumbo vans don’t have beds or toilets as standard.
•Toilet-equipped setups are typically large buses or RVs/camper vans.
•Closest realistic option: chartered hire vans or chartered RVs with portable toilets and a bed conversion.
•Pricing approach:
•Mix of distance/time-based charter rates and highway tolls (ETC, ordinary car).
•Typical charter van (6-seater): ¥8,000–12,000 per hour; long-distance often offered as day packages (8–10 hours).
•Night premium after 22:00 (about +20%).
•Coupons on apps (GO, S.RIDE) can save 10–20%.
•Hitachinaka → Yūki
•Distance/Time: ~80 km; 1.5–2 hours by car (with expressway).
•Estimate:
•Metered taxi: ¥12,000–15,000 (incl. ~¥1,500 tolls).
•Chartered 6-seater van (time-based 2h): ¥16,000–24,000 + tolls.
•Total ballpark: ¥15,000–25,000.
•For an RV with bed/toilet, expect a specialist charter and possibly a half-day package ~¥20,000–30,000.
•Hitachinaka → Maihama (Tokyo Disney Resort)
•Distance/Time: ~200 km; 3–4 hours via Tōkandō/Metropolitan Expressway.
•Estimate:
•Metered: ¥30,000–40,000 (incl. ¥5,000–7,000 tolls).
•Chartered 6-seater (4h): ¥32,000–48,000 + tolls.
•Total: ¥35,000–55,000.
•Day charter (8h) for flexibility: ¥50,000–70,000.
•RV with toilet may add +¥10,000–20,000.
•Hitachinaka → USJ (Osaka)
•Distance/Time: ~550 km; 6–8 hours via Tōhoku/Meishin.
•Estimate:
•Metered: ¥80,000–100,000 (incl. ¥15,000–20,000 tolls).
•Chartered 6-seater (8h): ¥64,000–96,000 + tolls.
•Total: ¥80,000–120,000.
•RV with bed/toilet and a >10h day: ¥100,000–150,000.
•Note deep-night premium if applicable.
•Tip: Split among 6 passengers to reduce per-person cost; for true bed/toilet requirements, RV charter or camper rental + driver is most realistic.
⸻
“If I Wanted to Buy a 6-Passenger Autonomous Vehicle with a Bed Around 2028, About How Much Would It Cost?”
For 2028, purchasing a 6-passenger autonomous vehicle with a bed (and implicitly a toilet—custom) based on 2025 market trajectories:
•Context:
•Fully autonomous Level 4/5 6-seater with bed/toilet remains niche; most consumer AVs will be standard seating.
•Realistic path: EV vans or RVs adapted with autonomy packages; MaaS-style vehicles (e.g., e-Palette) are usually fleet-focused.
•Market trend assumptions:
•AV hardware costs (LiDAR/cameras/compute) continue to decline ~20–30% by 2028.
•Battery improvements extend range; modular interiors spread.
•Currency/inflation can swing totals.
•Price bands (Japan, tax-in, 2028 projection):
•Base AV van (e-Palette-like, 6-seat custom):
•2025: analogous mid-size AV vans around ¥5–8 million (fleet).
•2028: Level 4-ready small e-Palette variant ¥4–7 million.
•Bed/toilet modules: +¥3–5 million.
•Total: roughly ¥7–12 million.
•Imported high-end AV (Waymo/Cruise-like) custom RV:
•2028: ¥30–75 million base hardware; with bed/toilet custom and import costs: ¥50–80 million.
•Extremely limited for private retail.
•General 6-seat AV RV (Honda/Nissan/others):
•2028: Level-4-capable base ¥6–9 million; bed+toilet +¥4–6 million → ¥10–15 million.
•Luxury variants (BMW/Rolls concepts) could hit ¥20–30 million.
•Influencers:
•Subsidies may shave ¥1–2 million.
•Import duties/JPY weakness can add 10–20%.
•Safety standards for bed/toilet integration raise engineering cost.
•Bottom line:
•For Panda’s specs, a custom e-Palette-style 6-seater is plausibly around ~¥10 million total, give or take.
⸻
“I See, So It’s Better to Give Up on the Bed and Toilet.”
At 01:17 JST on September 16, 2025, Panda concluded:
“So I guess I’d better give up on the bed and toilet.”
•Acknowledgment:
•That feeling makes sense. In 2028, a 4–6 passenger vehicle with bed/toilet plus autonomy shoots the cost up and complicates compliance.
•Standard AVs focus on seating + safety; bed/toilet remains a niche RV domain.
•Practical alternatives:
•Choose comfort seating (deep recline, massage, leg rests) and plan rest stops (service areas).
•As Level 4 becomes common (2027–2030), driverless shuttles with remote supervision could offset fatigue, and toilet breaks become simpler without a human driver present.
•For occasional trips, RV rental (¥20,000–30,000/day) might be more cost-effective than buying.
•Encouragement:
•If abandoning the bed/toilet spec eases the path, prioritize seat comfort + route planning now; upgrade later as AV tech matures.
